In one of the biggest trilogies in UFC history, Conor McGregor takes on Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC 264 and the stakes can not be higher for a UFC fight.
If Conor McGregor loses to Poirier again then it will bring an end to the Notorious Era, where he will still be the biggest star in UFC but no longer will he have the aura that he once had.
On the other hand, if Poirier loses to McGregor then he might never fulfill his dream to become the undisputed UFC lightweight champion. It’s a fight where the fate of the entire UFC lies as it might lose its biggest star. So who will seal this trilogy with a win? Will the Diamond shine again? Or will Conor McGregor bounce back from the loss with another flawless win? Let’s find out.
Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier stats:
Win/Losses – 22/5
Knockout Wins – 19
Height/Reach – 5 ft 8 inches/ 74 inches
Takedown Defense – 67%
Striking Accuracy – 49%
Striking defense – 54%
Win/Losses – 27/6
Knockout Wins – 13
Height/Reach – 5 ft 9 inches/ 72 inches
Takedown Accuracy – 36%
Striking Accuracy – 50%
Grappling Accuracy – 54%
Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier prediction
The biggest narrative going into the trilogy has been around McGregor changing his stance and checking the leg kicks. The fans strongly believe that if the old Conor McGregor shows up then he will finish the job against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264. And it would be hard to deny that the McGregor who fought Eddie Alvarez would give a really tough fight to Dustin Poirier. But, would that be enough?
Before answering that let’s break down what went right for McGregor in the rematch. He landed a couple of big shots against Poirier, won the clinch battle, and got back up from the only takedown attempted by Poirier. McGregor himself and his camp have said that they took a boxing heavy approach and that became the reason for McGregor’s downfall.
Dustin Poirier was the better boxer in the rematch
However, the fact that McGregor’s boxing was significantly better than Poirier’s is highly debatable. McGregor was not accurate with his striking even in the first round. He landed 29 of his 66 attempted strikes while Poirier landed 48 out of 91 strikes.
And these numbers are not usual for Conor McGregor. Usually, he is more accurate and precise with his striking.
Besides that, Dustin Poirier had some success with his boxing as well. He was countering Conor’s counter smartly. He landed multiple hooks after avoiding McGregor’s left hand and uppercuts. He even landed some effective jabs in the later part of round number 1.
So assuming that Conor McGregor would easily beat Dustin Poirier in a striking battle is incorrect.
The Notorious is more than just a boxer
Dustin Poirier has more options than Conor McGregor inside the octagon. Poirier can choose to strike, initiate a takedown, or clinch. But, realistically McGregor would have to finish Poirier inside the first three rounds if he is to win the trilogy.
And Conor McGregor is definitely skilled enough to make the adjustments and come up with a game plan to finish Poirier in the early rounds. However, McGregor will have to be at his absolute best if he is to get the job done at UFC 264.
McGregor has some solid leg kicks including front side kicks, front kicks to the body, and even knee stomps. McGregor will have to use his movements, where he has an advantage over Poirier in terms of speed. He has to be more accurate than he was in the rematch against Dustin Poirier and he needs to set up his left hand and uppercut, the two deadly weapons that initiate a finishing sequence for McGregor.
On the other hand, Dustin Poirier will have to weather the early storm in the trilogy as well. Poirier got rocked against Max Holloway in the first round, he got almost finished by Dan Hooker in the second round, and he was hurt in the first round against McGregor at UFC 257.
But, as the fight goes into the later rounds Dustin Poirier might just be the best lightweights in UFC.
It’s a close fight to predict. However, it makes sense to go with Conor McGregor in the trilogy. McGregor made a lot of mistakes even in the boxing department in the rematch against Dustin Poirier. It was arguably the worst version of McGregor we have seen so far in UFC.
A switched-on and fully prepared McGregor is a better martial artist than Dustin Poirier. But, Poirier’s toughness has won him many fights throughout the years and that’s how he has become one of the best lightweights in UFC.
But, McGregor at his best should beat Poirier. It all depends on how prepared Conor McGregor is. It might be the case that the old Conor McGregor fans keep mentioning is completely done. But, considering the fact that McGregor was adamant for the trilogy on a quick turn around you better believe that McGregor is confident he will beat Poirier in the trilogy.
Conor McGregor should get a TKO victory inside the first three rounds. This fight is unlikely to go the distance. If McGregor wins then he will finish the fight in the first two rounds. And if the fight goes to the later rounds then Poirier is likely to get the job done.