UFC 285, Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Prediction: Who Will Win at UFC 285?

Undefeated UFC welterweight prospect, Shavkat Rakhmonov is back in action this weekend. The Khazakstani is one of the best fighters in the division and he looks to continue his momentum against Geoff Neal at UFC 285. The fight will take place in the main card of the PPV and it is an exciting addition to an already stacked card.

In the main event of the card, Jon Jones will fight Ciryl Gane for the vacant heavyweight title. In the co-main event, Alexa Grasso will challenge the women’s flyweight champ, Valentina Shevchenko. But not just the two title fights, middleweight prospect Bo Nickal, and lightweight fighters Jalin Turner and Mateusz Gamrot will feature on the card as well.

Expect a finish here!! 👀@HandzOfSteelMMA meets @Rakhmonov1994 on our #UFC285 main card!

[ Saturday | Live on ESPN+ PPV: https://t.co/twBcYMJ3ve ] pic.twitter.com/jPjlAd2vbO

— UFC (@ufc) March 3, 2023

Geoff Neal had the best win of his career in his last fight. He knocked out Vicente Luque in August 2022. Prior to that fight, Neal edged out Santiago Ponzinibbio via a split decision at UFC 269. The two positive results have helped Geoff recover from the two disappointing results against Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny.

However, Shavkat Rakhmonov is unlike anybody whom Neal has ever fought. Can he overcome the challenge? Let’s find out!

UFC 285: Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov, Stats

Neal vs Rakhmonov: Fight Breakdown

Shavkat Rakhmonov has a 100% finishing rate. The 28-year-old made his UFC debut against Alex Oliveira at UFC 254. Since then, he has 4 fights in the promotion and has finished all of his opponents so far. While he has 3 submissions and 1 KO in the UFC, he has 8 KOs and submissions each in his career in total.

As per UFC stats, he averages 2.54 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He also has a takedown average of 2.31 per fight. While he has 50% takedown accuracy, Rakhmonov has 100% takedown defense. But he was not gonna face any grappling threats from Geoff Neal anyway. Neal is one of the most ferocious strikers in the company.

Although he fell short against Wonderboy, Geoff still held his own against the former title contender. However, his striking stats have reasons for the fans to be both excited and worried. He absorbs 5.28 strikes per minute and lands 5.27 strikes at the same time. As a result, Neal leaves himself vulnerable to being hit by his opponents very often.

Geoff Neal cracks Vicente Luque's Iron Chin pic.twitter.com/cnpKx1K5Nm

— Ocelot MMA (@Ocelot_MMA) February 28, 2023

In terms of grappling, Neal has a takedown average of 0.59 per fight. The 32-year-old has a takedown defense of 85%. However, judging by their fight patterns, Neal would love to have the fight play out on the feet. Geoff perhaps has the better striking out of the two, but Rakhmonov will by far be the favorite due to his grappling prowess.

Neal and Rakhmonov are both in the top 10 and both fighters are on win streaks. But, from what the fans have seen, the general assumption is, it is Rakhmonov who has the higher ceiling. If Neal has to win the fight, it will have to be a shocking win via KO. Otherwise, Rakhmonov may continue his win streak and maintain his 100% finishing accuracy.

Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins via submission at UFC 285