The welterweight division is set to have a big day on March 18. Divisional champ Leon Edwards will fight Kamaru Usman in a rematch of their UFC 278 classic. The bout will take place in the main event of UFC 286 inside the O2 Arena in London. Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev will take place in the co-main event of the PPV. Aside from the main event, the only other welterweight bout on the card will be Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena.
Bryan Barberena was on a great run leading up to his last bout. Before his bout against Rafael dos Anjos, Barberena defeated Darian Weeks, Matt Brown, and Robbie Lawler. Unfortunately, his 3-fight winning run came to an end against RDA in December 2022. However, he has a great opportunity to regain his winning momentum against Gunnar Nelson this weekend at UFC 286.
NELSON vs BARBERENA! #UFC286 is LIVE TOMORROW on @ESPNPlus PPV! pic.twitter.com/aE2SgfMYKX
— danawhite (@danawhite) March 17, 2023
Gunnar Nelson, on the other hand, is on a tough run at the moment. He has lost 3 of his last 5 bouts in the Octagon. However, his losses came against fighters like Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns. So he is not losing to unranked fighters. However, both of these bouts came in 2019. He took a break of almost 3 years and finally came back to the promotion in 2022 and beat Takashi Sato. If Conor McGregor is to be believed, he will be in attendance for the bout.
UFC 286: Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena, Stats
| Stats | Gunnar Nelson | Bryan Barberena |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 18 | 18 |
| Losses | 5 | 9 |
| Height | 1.8 m | 1.83 m |
| Division | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Reach | 182.9 cm | 184.2 cm |
| Age | 34 | 33 |
Nelson vs Barberena: Fight Breakdown
Gunnar Nelson was a very highly-rated prospect in the welterweight division at one point. However, losses to Santiago Ponzinibbio and Damian Maia halted his momentum. At present, Gunnar has an MMA record of 18 wins and 5 losses. Unfortunately for him, all 5 of his career losses have come in the UFC so far.
But, he has had success in the UFC as well. The 34-year-old has 9 wins in the UFC. Although it is a good number, Nelson has not lived up to his initial potential.
Bryan Barberena, on the other hand, has 9 wins and 7 losses in his 16 UFC fights so far. Overall, he holds a record of 18 wins and 9 losses in his MMA career. While the California native is not a title contender, he always makes for fun fights. The 33-year-old has 11 knockouts and 2 submissions under his belt. The Icelandic fighter, on the other hand, has 4 KOs and 12 submissions. So it is going to be a grappler vs striker match-up this weekend.
Bryan Barberena lands 5.92 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.90 strikes as per UFC Stats. He does not put much focus on grappling and it shows in his fights with a takedown average of 0.16 per fight. Barberena has been knocked out and submitted 2 times each.
So it makes Gunnar Nelson the slight favorite, who is primarily a grappler. Nelson averages 1.86 takedowns per fight in the UFC. In an interesting bit of statistic, Nelson averages 1.83 strikes per minute and absorbs 3.05 strikes.
So there is definitely some improvement that is required in Nelson’s striking. He was KO’ed by Santiago Ponzinibbio in July 2017. Although he has lost fights since then, Nelson has not been knocked out. So the bout ultimately depends on Nelson’s ability to land a takedown. Judging by the way RDA was able to manhandle Barberena in their fight in December 2022, Gunnar Nelson seems to be the firm favorite to come out victorious.
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