Future UFC Hall of Famer Tony ‘El Cucuy’ Ferguson goes up against the young blood English fighter Paddy ‘The Baddy’ Pimblett at UFC 296. The lightweight bout takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada, on December 16, 2023. With a stacked maid card scheduled to begin at 10:00 p.m. ET, fans are excited to watch the event live. Let’s analyze the stats and break down the fight to predict who will leave the octagon as the likely winner.
Tony Ferguson, a name that needs no introduction among the MMA community, made his debut back in 2011 with TUF Season 13. The Fighter won the season finale against Ramsey Nijem via KO and went on a rampage, winning 14 of his next 15 fights. With a 12-fight win streak over the likes of lightweights such as Donald Cerrone, Rafael Dod Anjos, and Edson Barboza. Ferguson also won the Interim Lightweight Championship in the process after defeating Kevin Lee at UFC 216 via submission.
Paddy Pimblett (@PaddyTheBaddy) vows to stop Tony Ferguson (@TonyFergusonXT) at #UFC296 next month — mocking his training regime with David Goggins. https://t.co/diMw7jM4jc
— LowKickMMA.com (@LowKick_MMA) November 27, 2023
On the other hand, Paddy Pimblett made his debut at UFC Vegas 36 against Luigi Vendramini, winning via first-round KO. The former Cage Warrior Featherweight Champion is currently on a 4-fight winning streak, defeating Jared Gordon via unanimous decision at UFC 282.
UFC 296: Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett stats
| Stats | Tony Ferguson | Paddy Pimblett |
| Wins | 26 | 20 |
| Losses | 9 | 3 |
| Height | 6’0″ | 5’9″ |
| Division | Welterweight | Lightweight |
| Reach | 76″ | 73″ |
| Age | 39 | 28 |
Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett: Fight breakdown and prediction
Tony Ferguson has an MMA record of 26 wins and 9 losses. With an all-round skillset, ‘El-Cucuy’ has won 13 fights by knockout and 8 by submission. On the other hand, Paddy Pimblett, with a record of 20 wins and 3 losses, seems to be a cash cow for the UFC. With six wins by knockout and nine by submission, the Englishman seems to pose a threat to the 39-year-old. Both fighters seem to have the skillsets required on the feet or the ground.
As per the UFC stats, Ferguson has an average strike landed per minute of 4.98, absorbing 4.26 strikes at the same time. Pimblett has a strike average of 4.19, absorbing 3.48 in response. The striking battle seems to go towards Tony, although keeping in mind that Paddy has never faced a KO or TKO loss in his career yet. On the ground, ‘El Cucuy’ holds a takedown average of 0.42 with 0.95 submission attempts.
The Baddy has a low immersive ground game, having average landed takedowns of 0.97 with 2.42 submission attempts. It’s clear for Tony Ferguson that his ground game and grappling will play an important role against Paddy. Also with a low takedown accuracy and defense of 25% and 56%, respectively, in comparison to Tony’s 35% and 67%.
Once the Boggyeman of the Lightweight Division, many believe Tony needs to find his former self. Keeping up with the skill and endurance of a younger fighter will surely be a challenge for the 39-year-old. Having lost his last two fights via submission has exposed holes in Tony’s grappling and ground game. The Englishman would be looking to capitalize on this weakness and make an impact at UFC 296 after his last controversial decision win.
